Arctic

Troms & Finmark, NO
Northern Norway faces mounting climate challenges, including rising coastal temperatures that disrupt marine ecosystems. Increased precipitation and unstable weather elevate the risk of floods, slush flows, and avalanches. These changes threaten infrastructure, ecosystems, and livelihoods, demanding urgent adaptation strategies to cope with a rapidly shifting Arctic climate.

Introduction

The IMPETUS Arctic demonstration site is located within Troms County, beyond the Arctic Circle in northern Norway. This region has a long artic coastline boarding the Barents Sea to the north. Major economic sectors include fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, mining, oil and gas, and reindeer herding. Although the area spans over 70,000 km², with a population of fewer than 250,000 residents, communities and infrastructure face significant risks from natural hazards. These hazards, such as landslides, rockfalls, avalanches, and flooding, are exacerbated by climate change-induced factors including rising temperatures, increased precipitation, unstable snow cover, glacial retreat, and sea level rise. 

Climate-Related Challenges  

  • Sustainable Management of Fisheries and Aquaculture Climate change has had a noticeable impact on fisheries and aquaculture in Northern Norway. Ocean waters are getting warmer and more acidic. Increase in marine disease and harmful algal and introduction of species but local ecosystems and aquaculture biomass under pressure. These damaging impacts could further accelerate and induce rapid changes to the coastal ecosystems.  
  • Increasing Natural Hazard Risks Rising temperatures and more frequent heavy precipitation events are contributing to a higher occurrence of natural disasters such as landslides and avalanches, posing risks to both the environment and human settlements. 
  • Flooding and Water Management Increased sea surface temperatures and the rising frequency of extreme weather events have led to significant increase in the risk to urban and coastal infrastructure. Additionally, the risk of flooding is growing due to sea level rise, and related storm surge levels in addition to changes in precipitation patterns. 

Key Actions 

  • Marine Spatial Planning: Develop a Marine Spatial Planning framework with relevant data on climate change and regional plans, at the same time facilitating a platform where municipalities can discuss and propose climate adaptation measures, protection strategies and promoting sustainable fisheries through spatial planning. 
  • Natural Hazard Risk Assessment: Conducting comprehensive risk assessments to understand future changes in avalanche and earth movement patterns. Developing early warning systems to mitigate the impact of these hazards. 
  • Stakeholder Engagement and Risk Awareness: Raising awareness among stakeholders and the public regarding the risks of sea level rise, storm surges and flooding through the digital twin. Engaging communities in risk assessments and planning efforts for inhabited areas at risk. Establish a digital twin of the Tromsø City to visualize the risks and also facilitate a fact-based platform for discussion and planning for climate adaptation measures.

Solutions

Adaptation Pathways

Impact chains (IC)

Snow avalanches are strongly impacted by local weather and climate conditions. Thus, a changing climate and the associated changes in meteorological conditions likely induce a change in avalanche characteristics and danger.

The most important variables for avalanche conditions are a combination of precipitation (both snow and rain) and wind. An increase in strength and number of cases of strong wind-and-snow events is expected to worsen the avalanche danger (Scenario 1). Hereby the number of days with severe avalanche danger will increase. The avalanche risk becomes higher in areas where avalanches are already encountered, but in addition avalanches may appear in areas characterised by steep slopes where avalanches have not been observed before.

In addition, higher temperatures associated with climate change may lead to more precipitation in the form of rain during the winter season. Hereby the avalanche problem may change from being mostly associated with dry-snow avalanches to become more characterised by wet-snow avalanches and slushflows (Scenario 2) A consequence of such changes could be avalanche danger forecasts being less accurate because of unprecedented conditions. This may lead to increasing accidents associated with skiing and mountain tourism in general.

Finally, Tromsø is experiencing an increase trend in winter tourism (Scenario 3), meaning an increase in people in risk areas, which is expected to lead to more accidents. The communication of danger and risk is important. Snow conditions in northern Norway are often different to those familiar to foreign mountain tourists, which may lead to wrong and risky decisions.

Pathway Map

Innovation Packages: Driving Climate transformation

The IMPETUS Project was designed to accelerate Europe’s journey to climate-neutrality by 2050, moving beyond incremental fixes to deliver fundamental, transformative adaptation actions. The central idea is that successful climate adaptation requires both innovation and transformation, a systemic overhaul of how societies, ecosystems, and economies respond to climate risks.

Innovation Packages are the core output of the IMPETUS project. They synthesize and organize the results from our demonstration sites across Europe into a clear, actionable framework built on three essential components:

  1. Resilience Knowledge Boosters (RKBs)
    • What they are: Multidisciplinary communities, supported by a digital platform, aimed at enhancing regional climate resilience.
    • How they work: They facilitate stakeholder engagement and co-creation, promoting knowledge exchange to develop effective adaptation strategies. RKBs integrate both human and technological dimensions, utilizing digital tools to inform decisions.
    • Impact: Each RKB is developed for a specific case study, engaging local communities to explore and share knowledge on adaptation while showcasing concrete solutions and pathways to resilience.
  2. Adaptation Pathways
    • Long-term Roadmaps: These are stepwise roadmaps that provide a flexible, long-term vision for managing climate uncertainty.
    • Managing Tipping Points: They are designed to identify when current adaptation measures will reach their limits (tipping points) and when stronger or new measures must be introduced to maintain resilience.
  3. Portfolios of Solutions
    • Tested Options: A curated collection of rigorously tested options (technological, nature-based, and governance-related) ready for adaptation, scaling, or replication across other regions.
    • Integrated Measures: These portfolios integrate both structural measures (e.g., advanced water treatment, green infrastructure) and essential enabling conditions (e.g., finance mechanisms, governance reforms, digital tools, training).

IMPETUS aims for Transformational Adaptation—not just adjusting existing systems, but fundamentally rethinking and restructuring them. This involves:

  • Holistic Scope: Adopting systemic, cross-sectoral, and integrated approaches to change.
  • Deep Impact: Addressing governance structures, social behavior, and ecological resilience simultaneously.
  • Shifting Pathways: Restructuring systems toward sustainable pathways rather than reinforcing unsustainable ones.
  • Inclusivity: Embedding participation, equity, and strong local ownership in all solutions.
  • Future-Looking: Ensuring solutions are durable and effective in the face of long-term climate change.

IMPETUS runs demonstration sites in seven diverse European biogeographical regions, each facing distinct climate risks (from droughts and heat stress to floods and sea-level rise). By developing and testing Innovation Packages, the project achieves critical outcomes:

  • Builds a common, unified knowledge base for climate adaptation.
  • Facilitates mutual learning and knowledge transfer between regions.
  • Identifies key enabling factors such as finance, governance, and digitalization.
  • Accelerates the replication and upscaling of successful adaptation measures.

For Troms and Finnmark (Arctic Norway), where rapid climate change is driving risks from avalanches, floods, and rising sea temperatures, the Innovation Package delivered:

  • Digital tools: A multi-sector digital platform featuring a Digital Twin for Tromsø City (visualizing marine storm and extreme precipitation risks), a Marine Spatial Planning Framework (for coastal risk visualization), and Avalanche and Slush Flow Assessment tools.
  • Adaptation Pathways for Avalanche Risk: Three alternative pathways (Conservative, Progressive/Mixed, Transformational/Interventionist) designed to reduce injury, loss of life, and property damage from avalanches. They are structured around two tipping points (increase in accidents or incorrect forecasts) and prioritize better warning systems, enhanced communication, and regulation changes.
  • A Portfolio of Solutions: Options tested or assessed to improve public safety and resilience, including the integration of slush flow classification into national early-warning systems (NVE) and the use of machine-learning models for more accurate avalanche forecasts.

This package offers a novel, long-term vision to manage complex geohazards and is designed to complement existing regional plans and national warning systems.

Download the full report for the Troms and Finnmark Innovation Package here:

Download Report

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101037084
Funded in the EU Horizon 2020 Green Deal call